WASHINGTON, D.C. — The American Trucking Associations (ATA) recently released its Freight Transportation Forecast, projecting a pivotal rebound for the industry as truck freight volume gears up for a 1.6% increase heading into the next calendar year. This data, compiled in partnership with S&P Global Market Intelligence, confirms that the sector is finally shaking off the stagnation that defined the past two years, signaling a shift toward more consistent freight demand.
For the average CDL-A driver and independent owner-operator, these figures provide a necessary light at the end of the tunnel. The report confirms that trucking remains the absolute heavyweight of the American supply chain, commanding 72.7% of total tonnage and 76.9% of industry revenue as of 2024. This dominance is not expected to fade, as the ATA anticipates that trucking will continue to be the primary engine for moving goods across the country for the next decade.
The growth trajectory for the coming years is substantial. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello notes that total truck tonnage is expected to climb from 11.27 billion tons in 2024 to nearly 14 billion tons by 2035. Revenue is projected to follow this upward trend, rising from $906 billion to a total of $1.46 trillion by the end of the forecast period. While rail and air cargo sectors will continue to play supporting roles, the data confirms that shippers remain heavily reliant on the flexibility and reach of the trucking industry.
What This Means for Drivers
An uptick in total tonnage typically translates to more consistent lane availability for those seeking new truck driver jobs. As freight volume expands toward the 14-billion-ton mark, owner-operators should see more leverage when negotiating rates on the spot market. For the OTR truck driver, this forecast suggests that the era of deadheading for scraps is slowly giving way to a more stable environment where reliable capacity is once again at a premium. Carriers are already looking to bolster their ranks, and those with a clean record will find themselves in a stronger position to secure high-paying positions with companies that value safety and tenure.
Industry Reaction
Carriers across the nation have been waiting for this shift in market momentum to justify fleet expansion and equipment upgrades. The industry has spent the last two years navigating tight margins and fluctuating fuel costs, making this projected growth a welcome sign for long-term stability. While the transition will be gradual, the consensus among industry analysts is that the reliance on road transport remains absolute, ensuring that professional drivers remain the most critical component of the national economy.
Key Points
- Trucking maintains a dominant 72.7% share of total U.S. freight tonnage.
- Total truck freight volume is projected to reach nearly 14 billion tons by 2035.
- Industry revenue is forecasted to grow from $906 billion to $1.46 trillion over the next ten years.
- Rail market share is expected to dip slightly as trucking continues to capture the majority of freight demand.
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