Chicago, Ill. — Analysts at the Journal of Commerce Inland Distribution Conference warned that the U.S. freight market may not see a meaningful recovery until the latter half of 2025.
The prognosis matters to every CDL‑A driver and owner‑operator because weak freight translates into lower lane rates, tighter capacity and longer deadhead miles. Panelists cited a perfect storm of rising interest rates, overstocked retail shelves and stubbornly high fuel and food prices that are throttling demand for haulage despite a brief uptick in consumer outlays.
Paul Bingham, director of economics and country‑risk transportation consulting for S&P Global, told the audience that “we’re on a downward path” and that a true economic bounce‑back may not arrive until 2026. He pointed to U.S. GDP growth of 2.3 % in 2021 and warned that growth is unlikely to exceed 1.5 % by 2024. Meanwhile, Larry Gross of Gross Transportation and Consulting said intermodal volumes are already 6.4 % above the average non‑holiday week, signaling a peak that will likely start the last week of September – a pattern echoed by J.B. Hunt’s Darren Field and Werner Enterprises’ Derek Leathers, both of whom expect a muted holiday surge. Bobby Holland of U.S. Bank highlighted new‑home construction as a possible catalyst, but noted that low housing starts and scarce inventories could keep freight suppressed.
What This Means for Drivers
Owner‑operators should brace for continued rate volatility as shippers hold back on new loads while inventory levels remain high. Fleet managers may see a slower exit of smaller carriers from the market, meaning competition for available capacity could tighten even as overall volume stays flat. CDL‑A drivers can expect fuel surcharges to stay elevated, given that higher commodity prices are feeding into diesel costs. OTR truck drivers should monitor the housing market closely; a pickup in new‑home builds could generate a modest lift in loads of lumber, drywall and appliances.
Industry Reaction
J.B. Hunt’s intermodal president Darren Field told conference attendees that customers are not banking on a dramatic peak, reinforcing the view that 2023 will follow historical patterns rather than a boom. Werner Enterprises CEO Derek Leathers added that uncertainty around the holiday season keeps carriers cautious, prompting many to hold capacity in reserve rather than chase speculative freight. Across the board, trucking associations echoed the sentiment that while the broader economy may dodge a recession, the freight segment will lag behind, leaving drivers to navigate a prolonged period of subdued demand.
Key Points
- Freight volumes are projected to stay weak until at least late 2025, according to the Journal of Commerce conference.
- Higher interest rates and overstocked retail inventories are the primary drag on shipping demand.
- Intermodal volume is currently 6.4 % above the average non‑holiday week, with the peak expected to begin the last week of September.
- GDP growth is forecast to stay below 1.5 % through 2024, limiting overall economic momentum.
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