Dallas, Texas — New surveys from Truckstop.com and Bloomberg Intelligence released on September 9, 2026 show carriers and freight brokers are steering toward a hopeful second half of 2025 despite persistent pricing pressures and tariff uncertainty.

The trucking sector has felt the sting of uneven demand, lingering tariff debates, and volatile spot rates throughout the first six months of the year. For owner‑operators and fleet managers, the ability to predict load volume and revenue trends directly impacts route planning, fuel budgeting, and equipment replacement cycles. The latest data offers a rare glimpse into how the industry is balancing optimism with restraint.

According to Todd Markusic, customer insights manager at Truckstop.com, 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers expect shipment volumes to hold steady or rise before year‑end. Yet only 16% of carriers and 36% of brokers reported year‑over‑year revenue growth, a slide from earlier quarters. Rate dynamics show 17% of carriers recorded improvements over Q2 2024, while 42% anticipate further increases in Q3, down from the bullish outlook of Q1. Load volumes in Q2 2025 matched or exceeded the previous year for 56% of carriers, and 84% of respondents forecast stable or growing rates in the next six months.

What This Means for Drivers

CDL‑A drivers and OTR truck driver crews can expect a modest uptick in spot rates, with 39% of brokers reporting higher rates than the first half of 2024 and 84% predicting rates will stay flat or rise through the remainder of the year. Steady volumes—52% of carriers see demand climbing in the next three to six months—should keep lanes filled, reducing deadhead miles for owner‑operators. However, only 21% of carriers plan to purchase new equipment this year, a sharp drop from 38% in Q1, signaling tighter capital availability that may limit fleet expansion and affect driver‑owner partnerships. Brokers’ confidence in the current administration fell from 74% in December to 44% now, a shift that could influence contract negotiations and the availability of truck driver jobs across the market.

Industry Reaction

Carrier groups acknowledge the mixed signals, noting that while 84% expect rate stability, 38% believe tariffs could significantly harm the industry—a rise from 30% in Q1. The sentiment underscores a cautious approach to growth, with many operators waiting for clearer guidance on trade policies before committing to new hires or equipment upgrades. Brokers, meanwhile, report 78% growth in contract rates and 72% steady or increasing revenues in the first half, suggesting that negotiated contracts are providing a buffer against spot‑rate volatility. The overall picture points to a market that values resilience but remains wary of external shocks.

Key Points

• 85% of carriers and 83% of brokers expect shipment volumes to stay steady or grow by year‑end.
• Only 21% of carriers plan to buy new trucks in 2026, down sharply from earlier in the year.
• Tariff concerns now affect 55% of respondents, with 38% of carriers fearing significant harm.
• Broker confidence in the administration dropped from 74% to 44% between December and September.

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