Chicago, IL — Transport Futures consultant Noel Perry warned on September 10, 2026 that the recent surge in truck driver wages may soon plateau as the trucking market grapples with a slowing demand for CDL‑A drivers, a trend that could trigger further wage adjustments in the industry.

For the past two years, freight companies have been scrambling to attract and retain long‑haul talent. In response, many carriers raised their base pay by as much as 15% to 20% over the 2024‑2025 period, a move that temporarily boosted recruitment and helped keep driver turnover rates below the national average of 30%.

However, Noel Perry notes that the supply of qualified drivers is now outpacing demand, a shift he attributes to the recent economic slowdown and tightening FMCSA regulations on hours‑of‑service. “When that happens, the demand for drivers does the same thing with the usual overshoots… and with the overshoot, that means there’ll be an overreaction in the other direction,” he said. Meanwhile, Rob Hatchett, president of Fleet Intel at Conversion Interactive Agency, explained that carriers who already made substantial pay jumps are holding off on further increases. “The people that have done the huge pay increases over the past two years are not having to do more pay increases because they’ve already made a big jump and they have been able to get drivers,” Hatchett said.

What This Means for Drivers

Drivers who rely on steady OTR truck driver jobs may find that the market’s cooling will lead to fewer high‑pay assignments. CDL‑A holders might see a gradual reduction in the premium rates that were prevalent in 2024, potentially lowering average weekly earnings by 5% to 10% if carriers adjust rates to match the new supply‑demand equilibrium.

Owner‑operators, who often set their rates based on the prevailing wage environment, could face tighter margins on long‑haul routes. They may need to renegotiate fuel and maintenance budgets to stay profitable, especially if carriers begin to offer more incentive‑based pay structures instead of flat hourly rates.

Fleet managers will need to monitor wage trends closely and consider shifting from hourly compensation to performance‑based bonuses to maintain driver satisfaction while controlling costs. This shift could also involve investing in training programs to keep drivers compliant with evolving FMCSA regulations.

Industry Reaction

Carriers that have already increased pay are now adopting a cautious stance. Some have paused wage hikes, citing market uncertainty, while others issue incremental raises to remain competitive without eroding profit margins. The National Association of Small Trucking Companies reported that 62% of its members are exploring incentive programs as a cost‑effective alternative to base‑pay increases.

Driver advocacy groups have called for clearer communication from carriers regarding wage policies. The Truck Drivers’ Union, for example, urged carriers to provide transparent timelines for future pay adjustments to help drivers plan financially.

Key Points

• Wage increases of 15%–20% over 2024‑2025 have temporarily boosted driver recruitment.
• Supply of qualified CDL‑A drivers now exceeds demand, prompting a potential wage slowdown.
• Carriers with prior pay hikes are holding off on further increases to manage margins.
• Owner‑operators may need to shift toward incentive‑based compensation to stay competitive.

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