Chicago, IL — Armstrong & Associates, Inc. and the National Home Delivery Association released a report on September 9, 2026, forecasting a surge in last‑mile delivery of bulky e‑commerce items that could drive 3PL revenue through 2025.
The transportation industry is poised to capture a share of a fragmented $9.3 billion e‑commerce market that is projected to grow 11.8% annually over the next three years. 3PLs have already started expanding fleets of independent contractors and freight brokers to meet the rising demand for large, heavy shipments such as furniture and appliances.
Armstrong’s president, Evan Armstrong, highlighted that 24 companies—ranging from Fortune‑500 freight giants to regional carriers with $7 million in revenue—were surveyed in the study. The report notes that delivering large items can consume up to 40% of total transportation costs and often requires extra services like on‑site assembly or installation. Value‑added “white glove” services, for example, can add $250 to a bedroom set delivery versus a $50 fee for a small parcel.
What This Means for Drivers
CDL‑A holders and owner‑operators who can handle oversized loads stand to benefit from higher per‑shipment rates. The need for on‑site setup may require drivers to carry additional equipment or coordinate with local installers, creating new opportunities for OTR truck drivers to earn premium fees. Fleet managers may need to adjust scheduling to accommodate longer delivery windows, and some carriers are exploring dedicated white‑glove teams. The rise in large‑item deliveries also increases exposure to FMCSA regulations regarding hazardous materials and load securing, prompting more rigorous compliance training.
Industry Reaction
Major 3PLs such as XPO Logistics and J.B. Hunt have already announced pilot programs to test white‑glove services in key metropolitan markets. Local carriers report that freight brokers are playing a larger role in sourcing capacity, helping them navigate state worker‑classification laws that threaten to reclassify independent contractors. Trucking companies hiring for these new roles are actively seeking drivers with experience in heavy‑haul and customer service skills.
Key Points
- Projected 11.8% annual growth in the $9.3 billion e‑commerce market through 2025.
- Large‑item deliveries can account for up to 40% of transportation costs.
- White‑glove services can add $200+ per shipment compared to standard delivery.
- Freight brokers are expected to grow in importance as carriers avoid worker‑classification conflicts.
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